Wednesday, April 10, 2013

My Overly Optimistic Two Cents on the Twins "Plan"

So I have not posted in almost a year due to a job change that limited the free time I used to have to research and write, but a recent emial exchange with my brother lead to the following which I thought would be fun to post to be mocked and ridiculed by the all C.A.V.E Twins fans that have come out of the woodwork since there back to back awfule seasons. Also for rationale Twins fans please feel free to mock and poke holes in this, as I am fully aware this is over the top optimistic....

I believe their plan is this based on what I have read, heard, etc.:

1.       Rid the books of any dead salary for the 2015 season outside of Mauer
2.       Rebuild the farm system through the draft & international signings.
a.       They are off to a good start in this regards but would benefit from more frontline SP depth and up the middle talent
3.       Spend sparingly in Free Agency for 2013,’14, ’15 &’16
4.       Over the next 3 seasons get our new core into the majors featuring if most go as planned Hicks, Arica, Gibson, Meyer, May, Sano, Rosario, Buxton, & Berrios (in order of debut)
5.       After the ’16 season assess where we are at in a competitive sense
a.       If that core develops to 80% of expectations it is most likely a say an 80-85 win team by end of 2016?
6.       See what pieces are missing based on how that core develops
a.       I think your OF is set at this point with hope Arcia in LF, Buxton in CF, Hicks in RF
b.      Sano proves he can give average to slightly below average D at 3rd  and turns into the monster bat he certainly looks like.
c.       Rosario is the wild card, if he can stay at 2B that is a major win giving you a potential 3-4 win 2B with high avg. and decent pop who is average at the keystone. If not I think you can shift him to LF where his range will be plus and his weaker arm will be hidden better. Then Arcia is your primary DH.
d.      I think Mauer is probably hardly catching by this point either so he is either your main DH or 1B
e.      Say Rosario is the 2B I hope he is then on the offensive side SS,3B, C are question marks as I don’t think Plouffe or Escobar/Florimon are long term answers.
f.        Gibson, Meyer, & May/Berrios/#4 pick this year which is most likely a college SP (most likely Sean Mannea, Ryne Stenek, or Brandon Shipley  (not all) turn into a solid 1-2-3 in the rotation and while they may not be elite they combine for 10-12 War a season.
g.       The Twins enter the ’17 off season as an 85 win team with 3 holes on the O side and 2 in the rotation but only have a payroll in the 75m -85m range.
h.      This is where the Twins are at the crossroads
                                                               i.      Option A: with attendance surging back in ’16 after an exciting season ala the ’01 season the Twins finally foray in FA and grab two solid mid rotation SP’s who are 3 WAR types (Edwin Jackson type of contracts from this offseason) they also spend 10 million on solid role players to fill 3B, SS, & C solidifying themselves for a 3-5 year window of a WS run and finally make everyone forget about the cheap dome days.
                                                             ii.      Option B: Same scenario as above but once again the Twins front office does nothing in free agency instead filling the remaining holes with farm system who are serviceable but do not push them over the into th3 95 win type of team they are capable of being with this core. They miss the world series window and basically we have a repeat of the last 10 years.

Which option is more likely  today? Probably option B but excuse me for hoping….

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