2012 Twins Personnel to Watch

And now for something a little different. My name is Jon, and Kyle, who normally writes here, asked me to lighten things up and write something every now and again on such varied topics as...

• Baseball 
• The Twins 
• Life 
• Baseball and life
• Life, the Twins, and baseball
• Blank verse poetry

I am a lifelong fan of the Twins and last year entered into a new phase of my fan-hood: following the team from afar. I am watching or listening, yelling at Pat Mears Lew Ford Matt Capps through the TV/computer, and writing from Anchorage, Alaska [insert moose/igloo/darkness joke here]. Having enjoyed reading so many great Twins blog entries over the years, I'm excited to join the fray (the cliche, not the band.) Let's get down to business. What's a Spring Training Twins blog without  a "Players to Watch" post? Rare. But let's not just limit it to players. 

Now presenting the official Armchair GM  Twins' Personnel to Watch 2012 Edition:

Matt Capps: the Twins trade for Capps involving top-prospect Wilson Ramos robbed the Twins worse than Venezuelan kidnappers (too soon?). But now it's 2012 and the second full season with the reliever affectionately known as "Star" Capps is beginning. Spring training means we are once again going to hear about how he pitched through injury last year, how it's really just a bunch of water weight, and how he kept asking for the ball and going out there. Some would point out that he was dreadful when doing so, but those are "glass is half empty" kind of people. 


Being a "who drank my beer" kind of person, I'm just glad that he hasn't started Justin Morneau on fire (fingers crossed). Just give him a chance to see what he can do in a contract year...what? Last year was a contract year too? JIMINIY-CHOCOLATE-SAUCE! Where is Mark Guthrie when you need him?


Wanda the Target Field Concessions Worker: She gave me free chicken fingers and fries once last year when the credit card reader malfunctioned and she couldn't be sure whether it charged my card or not. Turned out it didn't. It was a brilliant customer service move. Looking for another strong year from you Wanda!


Denard Span: Ever since he was called up in 2008, I have stridently--if unsuccessfully--tried to get the nickname "the Spaniard" to stick. Anyone who likes Gladiator should agree this is a super cool nickname. All my lame friends and even my wife have told me to stop mass texting "THE SPAN-IARD!!!!" when he makes any half decent play. They need to stop ignoring the facts. It's a sweet nickname. Don't be mad just because you didn't come up with it. This needs to happen. 


I'm also rooting for Denard to have a comeback year because the Twins really need him in center field. It seems like Morneau and Mauer have been hogging all the injury spotlight, and not without some cause, but Span's concussion worries me significantly. Without him tracking balls out there, we have Ben Revere and his slinky of an arm trying to hold AJ Pierzinski to triples with that weed whip. I may be selling his speed short here, but it's not ideal. Anyway, I genuinely like Span and want to see him do well enough for his nickname to catch on. 


Larry DiVito: No one was looking forward to Michael Cuddyer leaving more than the head Target Field groundskeeper. From game number 7 and on in the new park, there was a solid 3 square yards of turf out there in right field that he had to keep patching because Cuddyer stood in the same freakin' place inning after inning. Believe me. I've watched enough games from the first-baseline cheap seats to imagine Larry crying into the field drainage (way to go green) because his beautiful turf was disappearing in another of Cuddy's magic tricks. 


Joe Mauer: If you have read any of the StarTrib's comment sections from any off-season story having to do with Hometown Joe, you already know that Mauer is a no-talent whiner who is stealing money from this club by sitting out with his fake side-burn injuries. Now I'm not just saying this to try and get an invite to one of Theresa Mauer's ice cream sundae parties, but I say we give Joe another shot this year. Now, I know he has never played through pain or shown any desire to win at any point in his career, but I think there might be a good season left in him somewhere. Call me an optimist, but I won't be booing him on opening day. Hopefully a few people join me. 


Well that about does it for the initial/ possible final ever Armchair GM Personnel to watch column. Hope you found it informative. I know I did. Anyway, thanks goodness it's baseball season again. 


Never fear, Kyle will be back soon to update you on some high-school pitcher who won't see Triple A for 7 years. 

2011-2012 offseason outlook Part 2_ Starting Pitcher

The Twins rotation was an inconsistent mess this past year for a myriad of reasons. The most glaring where injuries, lack of ability to miss bats, and improper usage. The full rotation remains under contract for next year so there may not be a lot of turnover at the position but if the possibility arises the Twins could look to add a high upside arm or two and move a couple of starters to the bullpen.

What the current rotation will be: (in my opinion)
Carl Pavano
Scott Baker
Francisco Liriano
Nick Blackburn
Kevin Slowey

This looks like a thoroughly mediocre bunch of starters, but there is some upside in there. Baker looked like he finally turned a corner and was having a very solid season that was cut short with an elbow injury. I know everyone was fed up with Liriano this past season but he still can be a dominant pitcher if the Twins can get him to maintain his shoulder strength this offseason. He came to camp out of shape and was behind the 8 ball from the beginning which I think is the main reason he did not repeat his numbers from the previous season. Pavano's peripheral stats where nearly identical to his very solid 2010 season but was hurt by the horrendous infield defense playing behind him. Blackburn is under contract for the next 2 years for around 10 million and I am convinced Punto passed on his envelope of compromising photos of Gardy so will probably be in the rotation much to our dismay. Slowey spent the entire season in the doghouse with the manager, his teammates, and the local media. I think there is a better chance of him ending up being non-tendered then actually pitching for us next season.

Internal solutions:

Kyle Gibson having TJ surgery was a major blow as I felt he probably could have stepped in this year and held his own in the back end of the rotation and been an upgrade over both Blacky and Slowey. Liam Hendriks looked a little overwhelmed in his September call up but also show some promise as well and he could step into the 5th slot if the Twins do release Slowey and do not bring in anyone else to fill out the rotation.

Free Agent Options:
Name (Age)

Erik Bedard (33)

Because of his injury history I believe it would be hard for him to get more than a one year deal. He is coming off another injury shortened season in which he threw just 129 innings, but pitched well with a 3.56 xFIP and 125 k's. He would be an upgrade over most of the rotation when healthy and I think if he is on the market we should offer him a one year deal at 5 million with incentives up to 8 million. He will probably have a lot of competition on the market and we would probably get out bid but that’s the most I would offer him considering his injury history.

Mark Buehrle (33)

I have long loathed him while playing for the pale house and have a hard time picturing him playing for the Twins, but he is a solid pitcher who has been remarkably consistent throughout his career. He is probably the 2nd best starter on the market behind C.J. Wilson and therefore will probably price himself out of the Twins market as I expect him to get a deal worth over 35 million over 3 years. He will probably be worth that contract due to his consistency but counting on him into his mid-thirties at 10 figures is daunting and I would have to think hard about offering him that kind of deal.

Hisashi Iwakuma (31)

I’ll admit I do not know much about him other then he turned down 4 years and 15m from the A's last year. Per his numbers on baseball-reference.com (http://www.baseball-reference.com/bullpen/Hisashi_Iwakuma) he seems to be in the mold of the Twins pitch to contact type giving up the 1st and 2nd most hits in Japan while striking out 150 over 200 innings. The Twins finished 2nd in the bidding for him last year and may be interested in bringing in another Japanese import in the hopes that it helps Nishioka but at what he turned down last year it would be hard to imagine paying him what he wants.

C.J. Wilson (31)

Wilson is coming off of back to back solids seasons and no doubt will be overpaid by some east coast team desperate for pitching. I have read 5 years and 90m+ as a starting point and think it would be nearly impossible for the Twins to afford that and think they should and will wisely pass.

Via Trade:

Ricky Nolasco (29)

The Marlins have seemingly grown disgruntled with Nolasco and his average performance (http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/09/marlins-open-to-trading-nolasco.html) and I think he would be an ideal fit for the Twins especially if they improve the middle infield defense as well this offseason as that is the main culprit behind Nolasco's seemingly average numbers. He has posted strong K rates and GB rates the last 3 years and would instantly slide into the top of our rotation.

What would it take to get Nolasco?

Since he is still owed around $20m over the next two years and he is coming off his worst season in the last three years, as long as we were to take on the full contract, the cost for him would not be astronomical. Using the Edwin Jackson trades as models (almost identical WAR the last three years) we can get an idea of what it would cost to acquire him. I think that it would take a major league ready piece plus a b level prospect to acquire him as that’s the price the White Sox paid to get Jackson with roughly a year and half of control left. Looking at the Marlins roster I can identify a couple of options they would ask for in a trade.

The first proposal I would offer would be:

Ben Revere + mid-level SP (Bromberg or Pat Dean possibly) for Nolasco.

Option #2 would be:

Liam Hendricks + Mid-Level Outfield Prospect (Daniel Ortiz or Eddie Rosario) for Nolasco

My first choice of all the above options is I would much rather deal Revere and his limited offensive upside plus a descent upside arm to get Nolasco then pay big money for a free agent starter. Revere could slide into CF between Stanton and Morrison and his speed would play well in the NL. Nolasco would slot in with Baker and Liriano to, fingers crossed, provide a descent trio of starters at the top of the rotation.


That’s what I would do if I was running the Twins what are your thoughts?

The Armchair GM